Dive Brief:
- While the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the Cyclospora outbreak tied to iceberg lettuce from Taylor Farms and Taco Bell is over, the Yum Brands chain has yet to recover from traffic declines, per emailed data from Placer.ai.
- Taco Bell’s same-store traffic between July 6 and Sept. 11 was 12.2% below the year ago period, according to Placer.ai’s measurements.
- While traffic moderated compared to the early part of that period, when Placer.ai’s data recorded Taco Bell’s daily visits falling by about 30%, the persistence of the chain’s traffic troubles into September show it has a ways to go in recovering from the outbreak.
Dive Insight:
The sustained traffic decline — continuing as the epidemic abated — marks a sharp reversal of fortune for Taco Bell, which had been one of the winners in the U.S. fast food market over the last few years.
Placer.ai also found that fast casual brands, like Cava and Chipotle, tended to perform better during the outbreak, while QSR chains posted mixed results. This was offset by the menu focus of some fast casual chains.
“Chains tied to the Cyclospora outbreak, including Taco Bell and salad-focused concepts such as Chopt, saw visits per location fall over the same period,” said RJ Hottovy, head of analytical research at Placer.ai.
Since Taco Bell was linked to the Cyclospora outbreak in July, the chain has worked to distance itself from the parasitic disease, first by emphasizing the removal of potentially impacted lettuces and then by promoting non-lettuce bearing menu items to consumers.
On Yum’s Q2 earnings call, CEO Chris Turner said the chain was “leveraging its magic formula, brand buzz, innovation, value and digital,” and highlighted the Pepper Jack Steak Burrito as an example of Taco Bell’s “ability to deliver craveable innovation at a compelling price point.”
After the initial news, CFO Ranjith Roy said in late July that “sales declines have moderated materially and we are seeing steady improvement in day-over-day sales trends.”
The brand also sought to use its Tuesday drop value promotions — including $1 Enchirito and $1 Mexican Pizza LTOs — to bring back consumers. While this may have moderated traffic losses and helped the brand start to recover, Placer.ai’s data indicate that Taco Bell may need to do more to change public perception.
The iceberg lettuce-linked outbreak resulted in almost 13,000 out of the roughly 20,000 cyclosporiasis cases confirmed by the CDC. By comparison, this summer’s Salmonella outbreak linked to Jalapeño peppers, including some served by Chipotle and Qdoba, only sickened 431 people, according to the CDC. McDonald’s 2024 E. coli outbreak sickened about 75.
The McDonald’s case is also a useful point of comparison — the Golden Arches’ sales remained sluggish for months afterwards. Taco Bell’s sustained traffic decline may not be unique, and the chain could see a rebound similar to that experienced by McDonald’s later in 2025.
