New data from the 2025 CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor powered by Affinity Solutions: Q4 & Year in Review offers one of the clearest looks yet at consumer spending across 2025 — with Food Services & Drinking Places among the strongest indicators of how behavior shifted throughout the year. Across 11 retail categories, the data reveals a consistent theme: consumers didn’t pull back, they recalibrated — and dining occasions became one of the experiences they continued to prioritize even while tightening broader discretionary budgets.

After a year shaped by mixed economic signals, shoppers showed steady engagement but became far more selective about where they spent. Essentials remained strong, discretionary categories performed unevenly, and big-ticket home purchases continued to face pressure. Dining and social outings emerged as the “chosen” discretionary outlet — modest spends that delivered meaningful value. The result is a landscape characterized less by volatility and more by intentional decision-making.

Q4 Retail Spending Trends Reveal a Cautious Finish to a Complex Year

Historically a reliable lift for retail, the holiday quarter delivered positive yet more measured results in 2025. Year-over-year growth remained in the black each month, but the pace slowed — reflecting a consumer who showed up for seasonal moments while moderating discretionary purchases impacted by inflation and tariffs.

Food Services & Drinking Places showed steady year-over-year growth throughout the quarter, though the pace gradually eased. October delivered the strongest year-over-year gains (+5.52%), followed by a softer but still solid November, with December moderating slightly again. This trend is consistent with consumers redirecting spend toward gifts and spending more time at home — reinforcing how dining behavior closely tracks seasonal intent rather than broader financial distress.

Broader month-over-month data showed modest gains, a mid-quarter soft spot and a predictable December rebound. That end-of-year resilience aligns with multi-year trends, suggesting that even in cautious environments, shoppers continue to prioritize key seasonal periods — but shift where and how they celebrate them. For operators, these patterns highlight an opportunity to refine promotional timing, menu emphasis and messaging cadence around real behavioral rhythms rather than calendar assumptions.

Demographic signals from Q4 add nuance.

• Middle-income households ($50K–$150K) drove much of the quarter’s growth, balancing essential spending with targeted discretionary purchases.
• Within Food Services & Drinking Places, the lower-middle income band ($50,001–$100,000) emerged as a particular sweet spot, growing roughly 5% in Q4, closely followed by lower-income households. Understanding the lifestyle habits and value expectations of these households — rather than treating them as purely budget-constrained — presents a clear opportunity for more effective promotional messaging and offers.
• Gen Z posted some of the strongest category gains across retail, and nowhere was this more visible than Food Services & Drinking Places, where spending surged +13%. Younger consumers continue to favor social, experiential purchases over larger goods, reinforcing dining occasions as a durable engagement channel even in economically uncertain periods.
• Older shoppers remained more conservative, concentrating on everyday necessities while trimming home-related spending.

Together, these dynamics show a holiday quarter shaped less by weakness and more by intention.

The Year in Review: Essentials Steered the Retail Landscape in 2025

Looking at 2025 as a whole reveals a similar pattern. Total retail sales posted their strongest year-over-year growth in Q3, signaling that mid-year remains a reliable moment of engagement. Yet category performance varied widely.

Essential categories such as Food & Beverage and Health & Personal Care were stable anchors throughout the year, consistently delivering gains and demonstrating resilience across income groups. These categories proved foundational as households balanced everyday needs with selective discretionary spending.

Meanwhile, durable goods faced sustained headwinds. Building & Garden Supplies declined in nearly every month, and Furniture & Home Furnishings saw repeated drops. The pattern suggests households remained cautious with larger, longer-horizon purchases.

Not all discretionary spending softened. Categories tied to lifestyle, wellness, recreation and experiences — including dining — outperformed. These areas benefited from purchases aligned with short-term utility or personal value, an indicator that shoppers are not completely reducing discretionary spend but reallocating it with more scrutiny.

The Big Picture: Selectivity Is the New Stability

Across both Q4 and the full year, a consistent message emerges: the consumer hasn’t stepped back; they’ve become more deliberate. Essentials remain solid, discretionary demand is focused rather than broad-based and category divergence continues to sharpen.

For retailers and restaurants, here’s what really matters right now:

• Delivering value and relevance will outperform driving sheer volume
• Younger and middle-income consumers remain pivotal to discretionary growth
• Softness in the durable goods sector is likely to persist without a material macro improvement
• Consumer spending tends to increase around seasonal holidays and annual events

While sentiment may fluctuate, actual spending patterns offer a concrete, stable signal. And in 2025, that signal pointed toward a consumer who is selective, steady and increasingly intentional.

This creates a powerful opportunity for retailers — and especially Food Services & Drinking Places operators — to ground decisions in real purchasing behavior. Brands best positioned for growth will be those that understand not only how their own customers buy, but how those same shoppers behave across other retailers, categories and channels. Applying those competitive, data-driven insights across planning, activation, measurement and ongoing optimization helps brands show up in the moments that matter most — whether that moment is a holiday purchase or a night out.